Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD (RBBG) published its regular monthly economic review with comments on the macroeconomic data available in April.

According to the analysts of the bank, in February 2017, the industrial production index increased to 111.1p, which represented a rise of 3.2% compared to January. As opposed to the previous February, the index marked a growth of 3.5%. The monthly index dynamics made its 12-month moving average slightly increase to 114p, surpassing the average level of 113p, which had been maintained since November last year.

“The annual growth of the industrial production index in February was driven by the output increase in mining and manufacturing industry as well as the production of electricity, heat and gas. The growth of the industrial production occurred in spite of the decreased expenditures for acquisition of fixed assets in the industry in 2016, although only 1.6% below last year’s figure”, said the economic analyst of Raiffeisen Emil Kalchev.
On the construction side, in February, the rate of decline diminished to 2.7% yoy (-2.8% yoy in January). The contraction was a consequence of a significant drop in civil and engineering construction (10.0% yoy), which the increase in building construction by 3.9% yoy did not manage to overcome.

“As a whole, construction has been marking a decrease on an annual basis since the end of 2015, however, at declining rates since November 2016 on. During this period, civil and engineering construction has been dully contracting due to the very feeble absorption of EU funds following the beginning phase of the programming period for funding under European programs as well as the electoral situation in the country”, added Kalchev.
In turn, the turnover of the domestic trade rose for the fourth consecutive month by 7.5% yoy in February. The upsurge was noticeable in all three segments: the sales of cars and motorcycles went up by 21.4% yoy, the turnover of the wholesale trade increased by 7.3%, and in the retail trade the rise was of 3.2%.

The monetary statistics of the BNB reported once again a growth in the loans volume by 2.8% yoy in February, driven by an upturn in loans to households by 4.5% and to non-financial enterprises by 1.8% yoy. The more moderate rise in the loans to non-financial enterprises was due to the more pessimistic expectations of businesses, which planned less investment in 2017.

In February, the relative share of non-performing and restructured loans (NPLs), excluding overdrafts, accounted to 20.2%, remaining very close to their level of January, which was relatively high at 20.1%. The NPLs share of the loans to non-financial enterprises was more significant (24.5%), while in the loans to households their share was lower at 14.8%.

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