• GDP Growth of 2.9% over the last quarter of 2025, triggered by the end consumption and investments
• Strong growth of the average wage in Q4, too (yoy)
• Expectations indicate more moderate growth of prices after the euro adoption

By analyzing the most recent data of the National Statistical Institute, UBB comments on key trends of Bulgaria’s economy.

Over the fourth quarter of 2025 the Bulgarian economy performed well, reporting real growth of 2.9% y/y, based on the express assessments of the NSI. „The economic activity during the quarter was mainly driven by end consumption, which registered real growth of 7.2% upon a dominating relative share of 81.4% in the GDP structure. Investments increased even more solidly with 10.1% as compared to Q4 of the previous year and based on its rather smaller share being 24.7% of the GDP also tangibly contributed to the growth of the economy. Against that backdrop the export registered a minimum drop by -0.1% y/y, while the import increased considerably with 9.5%, triggered by the growth of purchasing capacity“, commented the Chief Economist of UBB, Dr. Emil Kalchev, PhD.

In the context of a steadily decreasing trend of the harmonized unemployment rate (3.3% as of December 2025) and a moderate pressure on prices over the recent months, the average monthly wage registered once again stable growth of 11.0% during Q4 of 2025 (as compared to Q4 of 2024). „It is true that this pace is a little bit slower compared to those in Q2 and Q3, when the average wage was growing by 12.0%, however it still does not provide grounds to conclude that the wage growth rate in Bulgaria is permanently slowing down. The average salary has increased in both the public (by 10.6%), and in the private sectors (by 11.2%).“, clarified Dr. Kalchev.

Contrary to the private sector, where growth rates during the year were relatively stable, observations in the public sector show more discernible slowdown during Q4, upon an annual increase of 13.8% and 14.2% respectively, for Q2 and Q3 of 2025. „This is a positive signal, as wage dynamics in Bulgaria is triggered to a considerable extent by the policy on remuneration of civil servants. “, Dr. Kalchev added. The economic activities registering the largest increase over the recent quarter were the following: „Real estate transactions“ with 18.1%, „Administrative and auxiliary activities“ with 15.6%, „Construction“ with 15.2%.

The growth rate of prices was somewhat calmed down in January 2026. Thus, the harmonized (annual) inflation fell to 2.3% (compared to 3.5% in December). Consumer inflation (according to the national methodology) also slowed down in January to 3.5%, as compared to 5.0% in December last year.